Aldeman: Yes, Average Teacher Salaries Are Down. But Many Individual Teachers Are Doing Just Fine

Aldeman: Yes, Average Teacher Salaries Are Down. But Many Individual Teachers Are Doing Just Fine

In recent times, there has been a significant focus on the average salaries of teachers. It has become a commonly accepted conclusion, based on data from the past few decades, that the average teacher salary has not kept pace with inflation.

However, it is important not to exaggerate this claim. While wages may have declined in real terms, the total compensation for teachers has actually increased due to the rising costs of healthcare and pensions. Additionally, average salaries are influenced by the composition of the teacher population. For instance, if highly paid experienced teachers retire and are replaced by lower-paid rookie teachers, the average salary would naturally decrease even if no individual teacher experienced a pay cut. Similarly, if a school district decides to hire additional entry-level teachers, the average salary would also be depressed.

These are not just hypothetical scenarios; they are actually occurring in schools across the country. Looking deeper into the national salary trends, it becomes evident that teacher pay is not universally falling. Since 1991, the average teacher salary has decreased by $630 in today’s dollars. However, examining the graph below reveals that this trend is not consistent across the board. When comparing teachers with less than 20 years of experience, it is clear that their salaries have increased. For example, teachers with 10 to 14 years of experience have seen an increase of nearly $4,000 in real terms.

Several factors contribute to these trends. The teaching workforce has become less experienced, resulting in a higher proportion of teachers on the lower end of the salary scale. Additionally, there may have been changes in salary scales that prioritize front-loading, which means higher starting salaries but slower salary growth over time. While this front-loading may lower the average teacher salary, there is evidence to suggest that it could have other benefits.

However, none of this explains how individual teacher salaries may have changed. To answer that question, alternative methods must be employed beyond simple averages. At the district level, it is possible to analyze how a teacher progresses over time through the steps and lanes on their district’s salary schedule. At the state level, teacher pension plans have been making and sharing calculations in their yearly reports. These plans must estimate the future growth of teacher salaries as they need to determine the amount to be paid out in pensions. To ensure accuracy, these predictions are regularly updated based on "experience studies" that compare past predictions with actual results.

An example of this can be seen in Colorado. On average, teacher salaries in Colorado have declined by 15% over the past 15 years in real terms. However, individual teachers are still receiving salary increases. The table below, extracted from the Colorado Public Employees’ Retirement Association’s financial report, displays the state’s official estimates for annual salary increases based on teacher age. These increases exceed the state’s assumed inflation rate of 2.4% and gradually decrease over time.

Once again, Colorado’s assumptions are grounded in actual data from their members. Relying solely on the statewide average may lead to the incorrect belief that Colorado teachers have experienced significant pay cuts. While the rate of growth may have slowed, individual teachers in Colorado are still receiving salary increases.

In essence, the average salary figure can be misleading, and this is not unique to Colorado alone. Teacher pension plans throughout the country are presenting a more positive outlook based on their internal data than what may be inferred from simple averages.

Chad Aldeman, a principal at Bellwether Education Partners and the editor of TeacherPensions.org, provided this information.

Disclosure: Bellwether Education Partners was co-founded by Andy Rotherham, a member of board of directors and one of the site’s senior editors.

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